The industry shows a reasonable balance between supply and demand, with a consumption around 200 to 220 thousand tons per year. Industry sources warn that the concentration in China is an opportunity but also a risk that forces diversification.
According to Bruno Ceroni, Goodvalley commercial manager, company associated to Chileprunes, the business is undergoing “a moment of a certain balance” between supply and demand. Global consumption capacity is around 200 to 220 thousand tons per year, while the recent production has fluctuated around that amount due to weather factors in several orchard locations.
Ceroni comments that the four traditional providers, France, United States, Argentina and Chile continue to set the standard in the international commerce. To this list Uzbekistan is added as a rising actor with an offer that competes in markets as Russia, Eastern Europe and even China despite having their own varieties and ways of drying.
In the United States (California), he adds, the course has been one of adjustment: about 91 thousand tons in 2015 (100 thousand short tons) to a projection in 2025 around 59 thousand tons (65 thousand short tons). The combination of unfavorable weather and less available surface has narrowed the supply and has kept an upward trend in the prices since mid-2024.
Regarding prices, the executive specifies that the market shows better levels than 2024, but he avoids to mention a definite percentage for the settlement of the season. More than a precise figure, he highlights that tight supply has allowed to recover values in the main destinies.
Asian driving force
China continues as the great driving force. Bruno Ceroni explains that, in 2024 Chile sent about 29,800 tons of prunes to that destiny, approximately a third of the total. Regarding plums, 2024 season was intense too, about 109 thousand tons between January and April were sent to the Chinese market. This duality, exporting fresh and dehydrated fruit, gives flexibility to the producers, despite having risks if that market were to slow down.
At the same time, he says, Chileprunes and its associates are working in opening up and promoting in India. It is a process that takes several years through which the industry seeks to build demand in a continuous way rather than expecting immediate results.
And Uzbekistan? The executive puts into perspective that it can upset certain markets, like Russia or Western Europe, and that it also sells to China. Nonetheless, he considers it a competitor of different characteristics for its varieties, caliber and processing methods more than an actor with a profile equivalent to the traditional profile of Chile or California.
Facing 2030, Ceroni anticipates a base scenario of stability as long as the global supply stays contained. All in all, he warns that if China decides to promote in large scale dehydrating plums itself, the competition will become more intense. That is why, he concludes, the key is to keep the discipline: future vision, market diversification and business sustainability.
Regarding Goodvalley, the plan, he says, is to look at the business in the long term. The company, founded in 2009 in the Colchagua Valley owns more than 250 hectares and prioritizes income diversification and efficient use of the infrastructure; for example, in the case of dehydrated cherries it uses the same ovens and equipment thus reducing fixed costs. The near-term goal is to double the drying capacity (from 50 to 100 tunnels) and storage warehouses; this goal is subject to advances in permits and investments.
