One of the most eagerly awaited speakers at the upcoming EXPO Ciruelas Secas 2026 is Sebastián Valdés, a commercial engineer and director of companies renowned for offering fresh and sometimes surprising, yet deeply informed, analyses of the industry.
On this occasion, he will present an unprecedented look at international demand for Chilean prunes, focusing on three key markets: Germany, Poland, and Mexico, countries that have been among the top ten destinations for the national product for years.
From a conceptual perspective, Valdés proposes questioning a common assertion in the sector: the idea that a market’s consumption is directly equivalent to its import volume. “It is a mistake to say that a market consumes a certain number of tons. In most cases, especially in agriculture, what is consumed is directly conditioned by what is offered. Ultimately, everything is sold; what changes is the price,” he explains.
Under this logic, price acts as an adjustment variable in scenarios of oversupply or scarcity. However, for Valdés, the central point goes much further: a market’s inclination to pay for prunes responds to structural and cultural factors that vary significantly between countries. “Each market allocates a relatively stable level of spending to this product. If there is more supply, the price goes down; if there is less, it goes up. But the real question is what determines this willingness to pay, and why it is not the same in Germany, Mexico, or Poland,” he argues.
To answer this question, Valdés developed an econometric correlation and regression model based on historical series spanning 30 to 40 years, combining economic, demographic, and industrial statistics from sources, such as the World Bank, with artificial intelligence tools. The result: models with high correlations, capable of explaining how per capita spending on prunes moves and which variables carry more weight in each market.
Among the findings, it is noteworthy that not all markets respond to the same drivers. While in developing economies such as Poland and Mexico, per capita income growth remains the main driver of consumption growth, in Germany—a mature economy—this effect is beginning to lose strength. There, demographic and cultural factors are becoming more important, such as an aging population, which drives consumption, and a reverse trend among younger generations, particularly millennials, who show less affinity for prunes compared to other products perceived as more aligned with new health trends.
This means that each market must be projected using different variables. Price, income, cultural and demographic trends do not carry the same weight in all countries,” Valdés emphasizes.
His presentation at EXPO Ciruelas Secas 2026 promises to open up a different conversation, based on quantitative evidence and long-term strategic analysis, inviting producers, exporters, and industry players to rethink how they understand and project international demand. Don’t miss out on this different perspective.
See you at EXPO 2026!!!
For more information, visit https://expociruelassecas.cl/ and register HERE
